Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Balancing Between
India and Pakistan
Saudi Arabia maintains strong ties with both India and Pakistan despite their long rivalry. This
balancing strategy helps Riyadh pursue its own interests through energy security, regional stability
and Vision 2030 goals. While oil remains central, India’s economic importance and Pakistan’s
security role both shape Saudi policy.
|Historical Foundations
The Pakistan-Saudi Arabia relationship started on a positive note in 1947, with the 1951 Treaty of
Friendship based on their shared Sunni sect and Saudi protection of the two holiest sites in Islam,
namely Mecca and Medina. Saudi Arabia provided financial support during the Cold War by
funding Pakistan in the 1965 and 1971 wars against India, supporting claims in Kashmir and using
millions of Pakistanis. Speculations are rife that Saudi Arabia funded Pakistan’s nuclear program
as a counterweight in the region, especially against Iran.
India’s relationship with Saudi Arabia started in 1947 but faced setbacks in the early years. The
relationship was mended in 1991 when India remained neutral in the Gulf War, followed by
economic reforms that opened doors. In 2010, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah rolled out a red carpet
for Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with a “strategic partnership” on oil, trade and
combating terrorism. King Abdullah’s visit to Delhi in 2006 was part of a renewed historical
Arabian Sea trade route.
|De-Hyphenation and the 2025 Defence Pact
The de-hyphenation strategy was further clarified post-9/11 as the Kingdom cracked down on
terror funding from Pakistan soil and quietly aligned with India on the emerging concern over its
neighbour. This became clear during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s 2019 visits to
Islamabad and New Delhi, when the Kingdom declined mediation in Kashmir. “We don’t link the
two.”
The September 2025 Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact promised military support against “external
aggression.” This India viewed this cautiously, seeing possible escalation in border tensions or as
part of the Islamic NATO that could get the Saudis embroiled in the subcontinent against Pakistan
or India. From the Saudis’ perspective, this is hedging bets as Pakistan’s battle-hardened army and
nuclear capabilities could provide the Kingdom with insurance against the gaps left by the US as
President Trump pulls back from the region. Oil supplies to India are also guaranteed as part of
the Saudis’ reassurances to New Delhi.
|Oil: The Ultimate Lever and Limiter
The energy drive the relationship. Saudi Arabia supplies about 18 percent of India’s crude oil
demand, averaging over 600,000 barrels daily. Saudi Arabia is India’s second-largest oil supplier
after Iraq. Trade exceeds $35 billion annually, as well as the 2.6 million expatriates sending
billions of dollars back to their motherland. The oil supplied to Pakistan may not be as great, but
the ‘lifelines’ of $3 billion loans and $1.2 billion of deferred oil dues cannot be ruled out.
Oil gives Saudi Arabia leverage but also creates dependence. Cutting ties with India would hurt
Vision 2030 projects such as NEOM, while Pakistan remains important for strategic balancing.
Economic demand continuous to outweigh political tensions, as any description would rest
global prices.
|Why the Tilt Towards India?
Pragmatism explains the tilt towards India. India’s 1.4 billion population, 7-8% GDP growth and
expanding technology sector, far outstripping the instability and bailout demands of Pakistan. It
has pledged $100 billion to the Indian energy, renewable and IT sectors. Defence cooperation
with India has also been strengthened through two agreements signed in 2019 on intelligence
sharing and joint exercises (SADA TANSEEQ).
Women driving, entertainment-oriented policies of MBS would be more suitable for the
democratic government of India than the military government of Pakistan.
Pakistan may have the soft power of manpower and Islamist credentials, but it also has the hard
power of bases and nukes and the emphasis of the Indian government on counter- terror
operations and the market potential of the Indian market are in favor of the kingdom, especially
as it deals with the fallout of the assassination of Khashoggi.
|Potential Pitfalls
There are potential pitfalls. The alliance may draw Saudi Arabia into Kashmir via oil and diplomacy,
leading to a breakdown in trust with India. India’s 18 percent energy dependence makes it
vulnerable. Labour issues with Nitaqat have already put a strain on the relationship. Saudi Arabia
may react to Indian ire by shifting oil supplies to Russia and Iraq. China’s CPEC in Pakistan and the
Belt Road agreements may create tension with Saudi’s strategy of keeping the US and India
balanced.
|Ripple Effects on Other Relationships
This agreement also has significant ripple effects.
- Gulf Dynamics: India is also putting pressure on the UAE, Qatar, and Oman, which are key
players in the proposed IMEC trade corridor that competes with China’s BRI. The UAE- - Riyadh conflict over Yemen is also adding more complexity but does not alter the viewpoint
on Iran, where diversification is key. - US and the West: Saudi Arabia is trying to reduce US dependence on the Middle East by
using Pakistan to strengthen its position in the region. - China-Pakistan Axis: This gives more strength to the CPEC with the help of the Saudi
Arabian technology in the nuclear sector, which hints at the Chinese penetration in the region
of South Asia. It also tests the Indian-led ‘Quad’ alliance with the US, Japan and Australia. - Iran and OIC: Iranian perceptions of Sunni encirclement trigger the proxy wars in Yemen
and Syria. The OIC Kashmir campaign also antagonizes India and could alienate the Muslim
world.
This new alliance between South Asia and the Gulf also has escalatory potential with energy
markets in tow.
|Strategic Outlook
The balancing act by Saudi Arabia is being continued through economics and it is seen that the
agreement is taking its toll on the concept of de-hyphenation in the multipolar world order. The
advice for India would be to look for diversified sources and strengthen the I2U2/IMEC and the
advice for Pakistan would be to look for economic reforms in order to avoid the marginalization
scenario. Saudi Arabia is playing both sides for maximum leverage and as the world witnesses the
rise of Trump 2.0 and China, it is the supplies of energy that would be the determining factor for
the balancing act on the tightrope.
De-hyphenation, Vision 2030, Defence Pact, Energy Security, Counter-Terrorism, IMEC, CPEC.
|References: - Saudi Press Agency, Saudi-India Strategic Partnership Statement, 2025.
- Reuters, Saudi financial support and Pakistan oil arrangements, 2025–2026.
- India PMO / Trade data on Saudi energy imports.
- Economic Times Energy Report on Saudi–India petrochemical cooperation.
