Absolutism is a common tool used in politics to fire up true believers. Politicians run on it and voting populations out of ignorance or hopeful delirium consistently buy into it. Absolutism rarely remains absolute forever. Remember “read my lips, no new taxes.” There are two paradigms however, which remain absolute particularly in times of crisis and chaos especially when it comes to geopolitics.
One of those paradigms is from Lord Palmerston who said “nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.” The modern day version of this is “no permanent enemies, no permanent allies only permanent self interests.”
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led nations to reevaluate their self-interests and make decisions they hoped they would never have to make. Germany’s suspension of Nord Stream 2 is one of those decisions.
As President Biden has prohibited the purchase of Russian oil and energy in the United States, he is faced with how to mitigate the effect his decision will have on gas prices. This has led to the United States entering into negotiations with Venezuela, a nation which the United States has sanctioned, (even as it gave Venezuela 656 million dollars between 2017 and 2019) to pump more oil and Saudi Arabia who has been criticized by President Biden and who reportedly have thus far refused to schedule a phone call with the US. President. It has also led to the United States recognizing Columbia as a non-NATO ally in regards to taking in Ukrainian refugees.
History is replete with examples of changing political alignments based on self interest. During World War II, Russia under its murderous leader Joseph Stalin first aligned with Nazi Germany until Hitler violated their non-aggression pact causing Russia to join the allies. The United States is an ally with the British with whom they fought two wars namely the Revolutionary War and the War of 1812. During World War II, Italy went from being an enemy combatant to joining the allies after the fall of Mussolini. Japan attacked the United States which led to the dropping of hydrogen bombs but is now one of its biggest allies. On the other side of the equation Iran and Cuba used to be allies of the United States. Even now Russia in its present pariah status is at the table with the United States to prohibit Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Hopefully neither nation will offer Iran security guarantees in return for giving up their quest for nuclear weapons. Iran would rightly laugh at them given how Russia violated the Budapest memorandum.
What is always absolute is self interest. While morality is an operating principle in many instances it nonetheless intersects with other prevailing self interests. Russia is a pariah state and if morality is the primary operating paradigm their economy should be reduced to a pittance, Putin should be arrested and tried for war crimes and they should never be allowed back into the global community. Nonetheless, have no doubt that the west will err again with Russia, even with no change of leadership and welcome them with open arms into the global community should circumstances dictate. The world does not revolve around absolute moral precepts but rather on security and economic matters. It should be remembered that Winston Churchill during World War II, in establishing a relationship with Stalin, said “if Hitler invaded hell, I would make at least a favorable reference of the devil in the House of Commons.“ Presently the prevailing self-interest for the United States, NATO and the European Union is the prevention of World War III. For the European Union, self interest is more complex given their dependence on Russian energy. As the world watches a tragic situation in Ukraine and what some erroneously believe is an intimidated western alliance the reality is that the west has rightly made global security its highest priority.
It is self-interest that will motivate nations including the United States to call on China either overtly or through back channels to step up as a world leader and convince Putin to end his invasion. China’s self interest is not only a desire to be a major player in world affairs but they also have a large financial investment in Ukraine.
Even those nations who either refused to join the west in condemning Russia did so out of their immediate self interest but with exceptions will reverse their stance as they recognize Putin’s miscalculation in his invasion.
The second absolute paradigm is that all power is relational.
Putin is not a shaman with magical powers. Like any dictator or authoritarian leader his power is contingent upon those people, nations and organizations who serve as enablers. These enablers will back him as long as their self interests are served. This is obviously what prompted Putin to travel to China to confirm their 2001 “treaty of friendship” and cooperation though it is clear he is the junior partner in that relationship. Unfortunately, in the case of Ukraine, Putin is also enabled by Americans such as Donald Trump, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Tucker Carlson and looney North Carolina Congressman Madison Cawthorne. Whether it’s the military, the Russian mafia, Russian Oligarchs, the Wagner Group or the Dumas, Putin needs to make sure their interests are served lest he risks suffering a political “ides of March” scenario. Although no Russian President has been assassinated since Nicolas II, Putin seems to be concerned about this as he sits what seems to be a block away from his generals although he was willing to sit amongst female flight crew members at Aeroflot. Those around him have received great economic and political benefits but if he becomes a threat to their way of life there is a strong possibility they would be the ones who force him to step down or worse. As the global community increases pressure on Putin’s circle of kleptocrats and mercenaries their way of life will come under threat and he will become increasingly concerned about his political survival.
The caveat to relational power is that it is contingent on self-interest which includes self-preservation. When one asks the question how long can the western alliance hold, the answer is as long as their self interests converge. This is one of the main reasons President Biden began to send troops to NATO countries as a sign that they share mutual self interests of national security. While Putin’s talk of nuclear weapons is troubling nonetheless, it actually serves to strengthen the NATO alliance as it reminds them of their mutual security concerns. In addition while nations should always be concerned about nuclear weapons it is probably safe to say that those around Putin are not suicidal and are very familiar with the doctrine of mutually assured destruction. If he should try to launch nuclear weapons there is a good probability the military and those around him would object. It is true that Putin has allegedly had political opponents killed but it is also true that the mercenaries he hires are not doing it for ideological reasons but primarily to maintain a lifestyle to which they have become accustomed.
Self interest in the realm of politics will always be shifting according to the social, financial,and security dynamics occurring at the time. Self interest is often self serving. It is hard to accept comments by Senators Lindsay Graham, Mitch McConnell and other GOP members as anything more than attempts at self aggrandizement. Nonetheless, when it comes to self interest, it must be calculated from a current and future perspective. It must take into consideration risk assessments which should include historical reactions to similar actions. In response to President Zelenskyy’s consistent request for a no-fly zone or as an alternative acquiring MIG-29 jets to protect their skies, the United States has calculated either action as detrimental to the self interest of the global community. Nonetheless, as many experts overestimated Russia’s military ground operations and underestimated Ukraine it is quite possible the United States and NATO are over emphasizing the resolve of Russia to react to what has been described as potential escalatory actions by the west. While not an exact analogy, it must be remembered that Turkey, a NATO member, shot down a Russian fighter jet plane in 2015 and Putin did not retaliate.
Russia is a third rate nation. What gives it clout is its possession of nuclear weapons. Economically its GDP is slightly more than the valuation of Apple. The sanctions will further deteriorate the economy to where it becomes an economic basket case with a defunct stock market, empty shelves and at least in the short term a repellent to foreign investment. As European nations rethink their energy dependence, it further deprive Russia of its main source of funds.
The self interests of many people, organizations and nations make it a great probability that Putin is experiencing the last phase of his leadership of Russia. Like many authoritarian leaders from Mussolini to Hitler they begin to believe their own propaganda which leads to their downfall. His hold on power despite pictures to the contrary is becoming more tenuous day by day. Russian ally Kazakhstan has denied the request from Russia to send troops into Ukraine. Even though Putin has clamped down on independent media, protests are increasing and even Russian TV in going against the official government line has begun to call for the end of the war.
Self interest especially when it comes to geopolitics makes it prudent to never say never. While the present situation has led to the west saying no to a no fly zone and transferring MIGs to Ukraine via Germany, another miscalculation by Putin could lead to NATO saying yes to an unprecedented military attack on Russia.
History is filled with examples of shifting geopolitical alignments and self interests. From seeing his soul and a reset strategy, America in particular has tried to create a relationship of convenience with Putin. At present however, global self interest dictates the defeat of Russian forces in Ukraine and the subsequent removal of Putin from the world stage. Anything less will destabilize the world for decades.