As the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine has reached its one year anniversary there are certain things that must be acknowledged.

One year ago many expected Ukraine to fall in a short time but one year later Ukraine still stands. Putin did not count on various occurrences which has impeded his goal. One is that he did not expect the West to remain as united as it has thus far. He may have thought former President Trump did irreparable damage to the alliance. Putin did not expect Biden to have the appetite for being involved in another war given his pulling out of Afghanistan. He forgot that Biden is the ultimate internationalist. He also did not expect Ukraine to be the fierce fighters they are. The Ukrainian people are determined to protect their homeland with every fiber of their being.

It is apparent he did not expect his fighting force to be as incompetent as they have been shown to be thus far.

Nonetheless, if Ukraine is going to be victorious the current restraints must be taken off. The Ukrainians have been given the weapons needed to defend themselves and prevent Putin from having a victory. Now they must be given weapon systems that will enable them not only to defend themselves but to go on the offense as well. It is a rational concern of the west to make sure the war is not escalated to the point where Ukraine attacks Moscow but the west can provide weapon systems that will enable them to push the Russians out of Ukraine including Crimea.

There are troubling signs that the west must be cognizant of. One is whether China decides to provide Russia with lethal weapons. Second reminiscent of World War Two when some American celebrities and politicos sided with Hitler, there is a small yet loud contingent of people in the United States who are siding with Putin. This includes republicans such as JD Vance and people such as FOX tv host Tucker Carlson who has seemingly become a mouthpiece for Putin. It must be remembered that Carlson could not do this without the tacit approval of Rupert Murdoch whose alleged affinity for Putin may stem from his former ownership of Russian company News Outdoor which led to an FBI investigation of Murdoch. Third the west must resist the call for negotiation which would include Ukraine ceding land to Putin. While the world would welcome a peace like the one negotiated by Teddy Roosevelt between Russia and Japan, Democrat Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal displays extreme naïveté if she believes the United States can negotiate with Russia to guarantee security for both Russia and Ukraine. Russia is not looking for security but rather to rebuild the Soviet Union. She should remember that Russia was a signatory to the Budapest memorandum which guaranteed the sanctity of Ukraine’s borders if they gave up their nuclear weapons. It was Russia who violated that agreement. Lastly, the United States must be leery about people such as GOP Marjorie Taylor Greene, whose loyalty to the United States is at the very least extremely suspect, and is now echoing the Putin line that he has voiced in other countries by calling for succession. 

The nuclear weapon question is a real one that must be seriously considered. While conventional wisdom believes Putin’s threat about nuclear weapons is an empty one, the west must be on guard about their potential use. The saving grace is that Putin is not looking to recreate the Soviet empire only to have it destroyed by NATO in a nuclear retaliation. 

What the west correctly understands is that if Russia were to prove victorious in Ukraine, it would not be the end of Russian aggression. One only has to compare Hitler’s Mein Kampf and his critique of the Versailles treaty as embarrassing Germany and Putin’s comments about the deconstruction of the Soviet empire to see that Putin is driven by a desire to reconstitute the Soviet empire. While some want appeasement, history shows that appeasement only leads to further encroachment of territory. A victory in Ukraine by Putin would lead to further aggression in the Republic of Georgia, an attack on Finland and Sweden if they are not accepted in NATO. Ultimately Russia could attempt, albeit at their own peril, to retake the Baltic states. 

Secondly a victory in Ukraine would lead to a further incursion into African nations and possibly result in a neo-colonizing of the continent. Those who claim Russia never tried to colonize Africa are historically wrong. In the 19th century Russia tried to colonize the village of Sagallo which is today known as the nation of Djibouti. In fact the Russian mercenary group the Wagner Group is already in many African nations. Third a Russian victory would provide impetus for China to attack Taiwan and possibly for North Korea to become more aggressive in its weapon testing exercises. 

From a strictly American perspective a Russian victory leading to a subsequent China takeover of Taiwan, an emboldened North Korea, a weakened western alliance and an African Union aligned with Russia and China would leave the United States quite vulnerable.

While the Russian invasion has become a proxy war between the west and Russia which Putin probably did not anticipate this is not simply about defending democracy. This is about the sovereignty of national borders which Russia has violated. With this incursion Putin has shown himself to be a war criminal and Russia is now a pariah state. He violated the Budapest memorandum and has gone against the rules of international law through the United Nations which Russia helped to create and his army has committed atrocities against humanity by targeting civilians. 

The war in Ukraine has many facets and implications whether geopolitical or economic. The nations of the world are watching to see which side comes out on top. For many of these nations the results will determine who they want to align with. 

Very few thought the war would go on this long. One can only hope that this time next year the war will be over, Ukraine would have won, the rebuilding process would have started and Putin will have been toppled.