Three great powers have tried to transform Afghanistan. Great Britain in the 19th century, Russia in the 20th century and the United States in the 21st century. All came to the same conclusion. Time to go. The United States itself entered Afghanistan under the auspices of the invoking of Article 5 of the NATO agreement due to the attacks of September 11th.
After twenty years the departure of American troops from Afghanistan has led to a myriad of reactions from around the world. Some of the initial reactions have been understandably quite emotional and predicated on the humanitarian aspect of leaving a nation behind in the hands of the Taliban. There is no doubt people will leave to surrounding countries such as Pakistan and Iran creating an immigration crisis. The issue of what will happen to the gains made by women is a critical issue and is as yet answerable although history does not suggest a positive outcome. Another issue is what will happen to the interpreters and others who worked alongside the American military and diplomatic corps in Afghanistan. Will the United States be willing or able to get them out of the country whose present leadership may target them for retribution. You can hear in the anguish expressed by journalists such as Richard Engel, Andrea Mitchell and others who have forged relationships with people on the ground about the fear of what they believe the future holds for this nation. People such as Matt Zeller point out that he is alive today because of his Afghan interpreter.
Richard Stengel was wrong when he described some of what was seen on TV as mere optics, What those images represent is what happens when an invading nation tries to remake that nation in its own image.
Nonetheless, journalists such as David Sanger who suggested that this would be a blight on the record of President Biden might be getting ahead of their skis. The reality is that no one knows what history will say of this decision to pull the United States out of Afghanistan. After all no one predicted that Vietnam would become a vibrant nation with a strong economy.
Thus far the narrative of pulling out of Afghanistan has been determined by the journalistic class who have obtained and maintain emotional ties to the people of the nation. The other narrative of leaving has been determined by citizens of America who overwhelmingly support the removal of American troops from Afghanistan.
It is unfair to compare the fall of Kabul with the 1975 fall of Saigon. It must be remembered that the image of the fall of Saigon was preceded by years of public protest against Vietnam, My Lai massacre, and constant reminders, by the journalistic community, of soldiers being killed. There was very little handwringing about leaving Saigon.
It is untrue that there’s never been debate about the United States presence in Afghanistan as some reporters have stated. In fact, the initial calls in 2001 for going to Afghanistan was debated and overly supported by Americans and the United States Congress with the exception of Congresswoman Barbara Lee. In 2010, it was again debated as President Obama wanted to send a surge to retake territory that had been overtaken by the Taliban. That resolution by Congressman Dennis Kucinich and supported by 65 democrats was defeated.
Putting emotion aside for a moment, there are questions that must be asked and answered. The American people should be advised as to how is it possible to spend close to $1 trillion in a nation over a twenty year period only to have a political and military infrastructure that collapsed. One reporter said in response to that reality that if American soldiers were not being paid they would not fight either. They should be reminded that in many cases the mujahideen were volunteer fighters when the Russians were in Afghanistan.
It should also be acknowledged that unless evidence is presented to the contrary, Biden’s comments are correct when he says “American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight for themselves,” “We gave them every chance to determine their own future. We could not provide them with the will to fight for that future,” he added.
The reality is that the political leaders did flee from Kabul. The military did for the most part lay down without fighting back for their country.
It should be noted that in 1979 when the Russians invaded Afghanistan the military laid down their arms as well.
It is quite legitimate to ask how long was the United States expected to remain in Afghanistan especially if it is true that this was inevitable to happen whether over one week or a period of months. If that is the case, then staying for another year as some would suggest is a moot point.
The expectation after the departure of American military is that there will be blood shed, women will lose their rights and anyone who has been identified as having worked with the Americans will be a target of violence.
While the agreement known as the Doha agreement that America negotiated with the Taliban created the context for America leaving Afghanistan is a amateurish exercise In diplomacy, make no mistake this has been the position of President Biden for years.
Biden’s advantage in this issue is that over 70% of the American public agrees with his decision to leave Afghanistan. This will shift however, over the coming months depending upon what happens in the nation under Taliban leadership.
The departure from Afghanistan by America obviously filled a deeply held belief by the president. Nonetheless, the departure will have both predictable and unintended consequences. The depth of those consequences will not be known for quite a while. There is speculation by people such as Robin Wright who in the New Yorker magazine writes is this the end of the American era or others who say nations will not be able to trust us or rely on us. While Miss Wright may be correct about the American era coming to a close, it will not be because it could not out right win wars in Vietnam or Afghanistan. Indeed America did win the war out right in the Gulf war of 1991. The United States still has the capability of winning traditional wars but has yet to create a successful strategy to win a war against insurgencies. While one consequence which Americans will have to grapple with is whether it’s military superiority and prowess is more mythology than reality the end of its dominance may be more because the world having diminished faith in the efficacy of democracy.
Many other questions must be addressed. Unfortunately the institution through which these issues will be addressed is the United States Congress which is home to some of the more clownish aspects of American democracy in the guise of people such as Jim Jordan, Kevin McCarthy and others whose antics.
The issue of staying one more year was always a nonstarter. The reality is that the issue was more along the lines of the late Senator John McCain who when speaking of Iraq said Americans should be prepared to spend 100 years there.
Those who suggest this could have been handled differently should consider several things. Did anyone really think the Taliban was going to let the United States leave without creating a visual narrative suggesting that it was them that kicked them out?
Did anyone really think you can begin evacuating thousands of Afghans without it leading to speculation throughout the country that is something of a dire consequence was taking place?
Afghanistan was never a place that could be left on its own. While twenty years is along time, this was a marriage vow situation. This was a sickness and in health till death do us part scenario. The idea that another one year or five years or even 10 years would’ve made a difference is quite frankly irrational and insane. The decision for the United States was not how to leave but whether to leave at all.
Congressman Adam Kinzinger recently said that America only loses wars when it gives up. That is a rewriting of history. The reality is that as one looks at history, America does not always win. The War of 1812, Civil War of 1918, the Korean War, and Vietnam are examples of America not coming out with its desired result. Congressman Kinzinger should remember when he spoke of a saying by the Afghans “Americans have the watches we have the time”
History will ultimately make sure that the decision carried out by President Biden was the right decision for America to make.