As President Putin signed an illegal and absurd decree calling Ukrainian regions Luhansk and Donetsk (both which actually have British roots as Donetsk founded in 1869 wasn’t called that until 1961) independent states the world is collectively holding its breath as it anticipates what could be the biggest ground war on European soil since World War II.
There is no doubt that Russia is the aggressor. It has violated the Budapest memorandum which guaranteed the security of Ukraine in return for relinquishing its nuclear weapons. While the Biden administration was open to discussion concerning Russia’s security, Putin’s pretense of being open to diplomacy has been shown to be the farce it is when he rejected the chance to discuss security.
Russian historian Masha Geesen noted that the most important part of Putin’s rambling speech is when he declared that the context for the dissolution of the Soviet Union was illegitimate. Taken at face value this suggests that Putin wants to reclaim all of the former Warsaw Pact countries into a new Soviet Union including Latvia, Lithuanian and Estonia which are now members of NATO. Needless to say an attack on these states will invoke the 2nd enactment of NATO’S article 5 which means World War III.
Thus far President Biden has handled the Ukraine crisis correctly given the constraints whether self imposed or politically both domestically and internationally. Unfortunately, Biden is not dealing with a rational counterpart in Russia. Putin is an aggrieved, soulless, narcissistic, megalomaniac in the mode of Hitler, consumed with the fall of the Soviet Union. Putin has engaged in the false rewriting of history to provide a pretext for invading the sovereign nation of Ukraine and satisfy his hunger for power. His irrational demand of an unilateral surrender of influence by NATO by rolling back its membership to pre-1997 levels is perhaps evidence of a man unhinged.
As Putin witnessed the fraying of relations among NATO’s membership caused by Trump’s inane stance and an erroneous view of Biden’s exit from Afghanistan as a retreat from world leadership, he thought the time was ripe to move on Ukraine.
Nonetheless, Putin has erred in his assessment of whether the US and its allies would remain unified during this crisis. While Germany seemed to be wavering they have stayed united with the coalition by suspending Nord Stream 2. Perhaps this is a sign that European nations have learned the appropriate lessons from World War II. While sanctions have thus far been targeted it is clear that additional sanctions will ultimately have to adversely affect the Russian population to the degree of decimating the Russian economy. While some may not be sympathetic to levying sanctions aimed at the populace, Russians must take some responsibility for the government they have as it pertains to invading a sovereign nation.
Russia is not simply an economic competitor of the United States. Its economy of one trillion dollars is less than half of nations such as Great Britain and France and dwarfed by the United States. Despite these economic facts, Russia with its nuclear weaponry and expansionist tendencies is an enemy of the United States and Europe.
At the end of this travesty, Putin can rightfully be described as a war criminal. Nonetheless, it is possible that America is experiencing a creation of a fifth column headed by ex-President Trump, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Laura Ingraham, Tucker Carlson and others. Carlson is constantly played on Russian state TV these days. When one looks back at the famous Helsinki summit between Putin and the ex-President in which he came across as a sycophant of Putin it would not be beyond rational thinking that Russia would have carte blanche to reestablish the Soviet Union under another Trump administration. The little noticed dynamic is how the disinformation campaign implemented by Vladimir Putin is seemingly being parroted by right wing politicians.
Foreign policy differences about how to handle the security of the nation are signs of a healthy democracy and should be encouraged. When it comes to the security of the nation, ideology should be secondary to what actually works.
However, when those who took an oath to uphold the constitution of the United States begin to parrot the talking points of the enemy red flags should go up immediately.
Unfortunately, like during World War II, America has always had sympathizers who sided with the enemy for their various reasons. Father Charles Coughlin, Charles Lindberg, William Dudley Pelley Silver Shirt Legion, Henry Ford, Joseph Kennedy, just to name a few, were NAZI sympathizers because of their inherent anti-semitism. The new enemy sympathizers are centered in an extreme sense of xenophobia, an absurd sense of anti-wokeness, faux white grievance, white Christianity and let’s not forget a thirst for power. The extreme conservative segment of the United States believes that it has found a kindred spirit in Putin. They believe America needs an autocratic leader to return them to a time when white supremacy was a public, legal and theological reality.
The issue is not to stifle their speech nor to conclude that America has always been on the right side of history but to call them out for what can be reasonably be described as consoling the enemy of America. The issue is that the developing fifth column is a threat to this nation.
Despite the obvious dangers posed by Putin, there are potential albeit long term consequences to this atrocity that Putin fears. Contrary to what some people believe, Putin needs the support of the Russian people. This is why he has engaged in a propaganda strategy centered in Russian nationalism and revisionist history. At present Putin believes he has the support of the Russian population. He may find however, that he has overestimated this support which may lead to his downfall. If as predicted bodybags of Russian soldiers are sent back to Russia in large numbers, Putin will face questions about his competence. Secondly, the economic sanctions will not affect Putin personally but as they begin to have adverse consequences on the population, Putin will be faced with an angry citizenry. Third while the Russian army can defeat the Ukrainian army he will be faced with an intense insurgency which could lead to another Afghanistan which Russia was forced to leave. His other challenge which has gone unnoticed despite his meeting and subsequent joint statement with Chinese President Xi Jinping is that China does not see itself as an equal partner of Russia. At best, China sees Russia as a junior partner that needs its assistance. China’s self interest is to be on par with the United States not to bolster Russia which simply serves China’s self interest at the moment.
Putin’s military victory in Ukraine may be a foregone conclusion but it may be a pyrrhic one as some historians described Russia’s victory over Finland in the Winter War. It is true his audacious land grab is predicated on being able to take over territory in Crimea, Chechnya, Syria and Georgia without severe consequences but it may be that Putin in this instance has gone one step too far.